This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Based on comprehensive analysis Sanders will be 87 in 2028. No major party has nominated candidate over 80. Democratic Party shifting to younger leadership after Biden. Base rate for octogenarian nominations is effectively zero. Historical precedent shows age is prohibitive factor. Estimated probability Sanders nomination 15 percent therefore predicting NO at 85 percent confidence level.